Air quality update from ClientEarth

ClientEarth’s Dominic Phinn has published his monthly air quality update. Read his comprehensive analysis of the latest developments on air quality.

Announcements from businesses over the last month provide cause for optimism that the shift to a zero-emission transport system is not only inevitable but is accelerating. Europe is now the global frontrunner for EV sales and overtook China for the first time in five years. However, people’s lives continue to be cut short by illegal air pollution levels, and action is needed now to protect people’s health.

This month, after years of warnings from the European Commission, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ruled that the UK has “systematically and persistently” exceeded legal limits for dangerous nitrogen dioxide (NO2) since 2010 and has failed against its legal duties to put plans in place to tackle the problem in the shortest possible time. This could see the UK facing fines if it still fails to take action to comply.

Our lawyer Katie Nield commented: ‘This ruling comes from a European court, but Brexit or no Brexit, these pollution limits remain in national law. These rules still bind the UK government.’

In the Government’s 2017 Air Quality Plan, its own evidence shows that Clean Air Zones (CAZs) are the most effective way to address illegal air pollution levels “in the shortest time possible”. The next twelve months will see welcome but long overdue progress. These essential schemes tackle harmful and illegal air pollution measures are introduced in Bath, Bradford, Birmingham and Bristol. However, progress has overall been plodding, and there remains uncertainty as to when Clean Air Zones will be delivered in other key urban areas. This leaves thousands of people exposed to toxic air and makes it hard for businesses with fleets of vehicles to plan ahead.

Event Invitation: Clean Air Zones: creating healthy, inclusive and accessible UK towns and cities

Birmingham is set to launch its Clean Air Zone on 1 June. This is excellent progress towards protecting the health of people who live, work and travel throughout the area from the effects of illegal air pollution levels.

In preparation for the launch, Birmingham City Council and ClientEarth will be hosting a free online event on 17 March.

As well as presentations from ClientEarth, we will be joined by local Government, health, and business experts. Sign up here.

In addition to our insight on local authority air quality plans and the implications for business, this month’s edition will reflect on what more is needed from the Government at a national level, include links to the latest evidence showing the health impacts of air pollution and look at the trends defining the shift to cleaner vehicles.

 Local Authority Updates

Over 60 English local authorities have been directed by ministers to come up with measures to clean up illegal air pollution in their areas. While there remains a concerning lack of clarity around some of these plans, long-awaited progress is emerging in some areas.

• Bath remains on track to get its class C Clean Air Zone up and running on 15 March this year. This will not include restrictions on passenger cars but is a crucial step towards protecting people’s health in the city.
• Last week, Bristol City Council formally approved and submitted its plan for a Class D Clean Air Zone to the central Government. It will restrict the most polluting of all vehicle classes from entering the city centre – including private cars – and is scheduled to go live in October 2021. Mayor Marvin Rees said: ‘All measures taken will be tested against our legal duty to deliver compliance in the shortest possible time.’
• At an executive meeting earlier this week, Bradford Council announced its plan for introducing a class C Clean Air Zone by spring 2022
• Rotherham Council seeks a decision from Sheffield City Council on whether a Sheffield Clean Air Zone is still necessary as part of their joint air quality plan. Sheffield City Council announced in September last year that it was reconsidering the proposals due to a recent drop in transport emissions. This reasoning requires scrutiny, given the reduction in transport emissions directly correlates with the introduction of lockdown restrictions.
• Birmingham City Council is introducing a range of measures to support businesses and individuals to adapt to the forthcoming class D Clean Air Zone, including £5,000 to replace taxis with cleaner alternatives that are compliant with the zone. The funds are part of a £15 million grants package for taxi companies.
• Greater Manchester has reconfirmed its commitment to introduce a Clean Air Zone in Spring 2022, subject to several exemptions.

Other Local Authority measures

• Leicester City Council is planning to consult on introducing a workplace parking levy similar to a scheme in Nottingham as part of its new Local Transport Plan.
• Coventry City Council is looking to trial a “mobility credit” scheme where drivers with old, polluting cars will be offered to exchange them for “mobility credits” up to the value of £3,000. This can be spent on public transport, bicycles, electric scooters, car clubs and taxis. Hampshire County Council is also considering a ‘mobility credit scheme’.

The health impacts of air pollution

Reports published over the last month showing the impact of air pollution on our health include:

• Researchers at Greenpeace Southeast Asia have estimated that PM2.5 pollution was responsible for 160,000 avoidable deaths in 2020 in five of the world’s most populous cities.
• A study from Stanford University in the US has found that early exposure to air pollution puts children at higher risk of disease in adulthood.
• A study from the American Heart Association has found that long-term exposure to even low air pollution levels increases the risk of heart and lung disease.
• Research conducted for Air Quality News shows the disproportionate impact that poor air quality has on the UK’s most disadvantaged communities.
• Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, whose nine-year-old daughter Ella Roberta died in 2013 from a fatal asthma attack caused by exposure to excessive air pollution levels, highlighted the issue of inequality in air pollution in an article in the Guardian.
• Research from Harvard University indicates that the human costs of air pollution are much bigger than previously believed.
• A report from Asthma UK and British Lung Foundation has revealed that a quarter of all care homes and a third of all GP practices and hospitals in England are in places where particulate pollution exceeds the limits recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). 
• A new study from Peking University Third Hospital in China suggests that air pollution significantly raises infertility risk.

The economic cost of air pollution

• The Institute for European Environmental Policy is working on a study about green taxation in the EU. According to preliminary results presented last month, the consequences of air pollution cost European governments €700 billion annually — 90% of that as health-related costs. This was reported in Politico Sustainability Insights on 4 February. This follows a report from The CBI in September last year, indicating that the UK economy could get a £1.6 billion annual boost if it met World Health Organization guidelines for air pollution.

The shift to cleaner forms of transport

Spiking sales of electric vehicles in the UK reflects a Europe-wide trend and indicates that the tipping point favouring electric vehicle sales is here or already passed. 

• BloombergNEF’s analysis predicts lithium-ion battery costs will continue to fall, bringing electric cars’ price into line with petrol and diesel cars by 2023.
• McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2021 forecasts that ‘electric vehicles are likely to become the most economical choice in the next five years in many parts of the world.’
• Meanwhile, investors continue to see EVs as the route to profitability and the inverse for petrol and diesel vehicles. Recent Morgan Stanley research looks at factors that are likely to ‘transform what were once profit-generating assets into potentially loss-making and cash-burning businesses.’ 

Demand for cleaner vehicles

• According to an AA poll, drivers think that Zero Emission Exhaust Vehicles (ZEVs) will outnumber diesel by 2030
• Europe is now the global frontrunner for EV sales and overtook China for the first time in five years.
• ICCT sales data shows that the EV market share in 2020 grew across all European countries, big and small: by 564% in Greece and by more than 400% in Slovakia, Estonia, and the Czech Republic. It quadrupled in Italy, Germany, and France and trebled in Spain and the UK.  

Fleet commitments

As more zero exhaust emission exhaust commercial vehicles become available, businesses and individuals are looking beyond petrol and diesel as their vehicle choice.

• In February, The Climate Group’s EV100 initiative published its annual EV100 Progress and Insights Report, which shows a sharp increase in the uptake of EVs in fleets and an increasingly rapid roll-out of charging infrastructure.
• British Gas says it plans to never order another ICE vehicle after signing a deal for a further 2,000 Vivaro-e electric vans from Vauxhall. Centrica has also committed to making its 1,500 company cars EV-only and having every one of its fleet of 12,000 vehicles electric by 2025.
• Facilities Management company Mitie has announced it will have at least 2,000 ZEEVs in its fleet by the end of 2021.

Manufacturer commitments

Meanwhile, the writing is on the wall for large carmakers. Following the announcement from General Motors in January that it will invest $27 billion in electric vehicle manufacture to reach 100% ZEEV sales by 2035, several other large car makes have made announcements over the last month:

• Stealing the headlines was Jaguar Land Rover’s announcement that Jaguar will be an EV-only brand from 2025. The Land Rover brand will launch six pure electric cars within the next five years. However, it will continue to offer hybrid vehicles combining internal combustion engines with batteries until about 2036. This latter date is not soon enough. The quicker we kick the addiction to sports utility vehicles (SUVs) that both brands produce and Land Rover specialises in, the better. The National Audit Office has concluded that SUVs’ popularity and an increase in road traffic were among factors that have cancelled out expected reductions from low-emission car sales.
• Volvo has announced that its entire car lineup will be fully electric by 2030. Chief Executive Håkan Samuelsson stated: “I am totally convinced there will be no customers who really want to stay with a petrol engine”.
• Traditionally conservative auto manufacturer Ford has committed to all of its passenger cars in Europe being “zero-emissions capable all-electric or plug-in hybrid” by mid-2026 and “completely all-electric by 2030”.
• Stellaris, the £43 billion mergers between Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler in January, is a response to the need to electrify. Whether the company’s plans will fit into the UK’s green recovery will depend on whether the investment will be in electric vehicles and whether it will continue in Vauxhall’s Ellesmere Port factory.

The environmental case against petrol and diesel

Evidence continues to build on the health and environmental benefits that a move away from petrol and diesel cars will bring. According to a study from Transport & Environment, fossil fuel cars waste hundreds of times more raw material than their battery electric equivalents, according to a study from Transport & Environment.

The Government’s Response

The Government’s announcement of a Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution importantly acknowledged that the route to a strong, resilient economy with good-quality jobs is also one that prevents climate change and protects people from the impacts of polluted air.

We saw this rhetoric again in last week’s budget. The Chancellor claimed it would lay “the foundations for a strong recovery and greener economy, levelling up the country and spreading prosperity across every part of the UK”. In addition to long term vision, the transition to a zero-emission transport system depends on clear short term goals and significant investment. In this regard, the budget fell well short and is another missed opportunity to match long-term ambition with urgency and immediate targets.